Barack Obama Now Leads in Pledged Superdelegates

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The Democratic primary is increasingly looking like a formality at this point with Barack Obama as the all but certain Democratic nominee.

We already know Clinton will win West Virginia but will a win in such a small state have any bearing on the Democratic race, I think not. This primary is all about delegates and all this chatter we hear about popular vote, who won the most states, and electability is all a product of the media as a way to gauge how the superdelegates may vote.

There’s one thing that these superdelegates want more than anything else and that is to unite the party. At this point, for Clinton to beat Obama, would be so devastating to the Democratic party that it does not matter who is more electable.. these Democrats have to go with Obama.

Here are the details of the delegate race.

Source Clinton Obama Clinton % Needed to Win
Washington Post 1684 1840 65%
NY Times 1688 1859 67%
AP 1697 1854 66%
CNN 1696 1860 67%
ABC 1692 1862 67%
CBS 1690 1854 66%
MSNBC 1700 1859 66%

The column entitled, “Clinton % Needed to Win” is exactly that… the percent of the remaining delegates Clinton needs to secure the nomination. And the average of all the news sources is about 66%…

The majority of the superdelegates at this point are going Obama’s way and the inertia of that will be hard to stop by Clinton unless there is some travesty or major news story that hits the airwaves about Obama. But we expect Obama to play it safe as he secures the nomination.

Why Clinton Is Holding Out?

Florida/Michigan – If Florida and Michigan count, Clinton will be able to narrow the gap between herself and Obama…

John Edwards – Edwards has 19 pledged delegates that he is able to give to whomever he chooses since he officially “suspended” his campaign. If Edwards gets on board with Clinton, she will narrow the gap a little bit more. But keep in mind, Edwards would ruin his political future by doing such a thing so it remains highly unlikely that he would.

Campaign Funds – Clinton loaned herself a great deal of money and will pay it off with campaign contributions that come in now. So anybody that donates to Clinton’s campaign right now is not helping her remain viable in the race but rather to pay off her debts.

2012 – Dick Morris has stated that Clinton’s goal is to alienate White Democratic voters from Obama this primary season so that Obama loses to McCain in 2012 — setting herself up for 2012. But if Obama were to be the 2008 nominee, would he not be a shoe-in for 2012? For sure.

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